The government is facing fresh questions over the effectiveness of its 100 per cent school transition policy after new figures revealed that more than 261,000 learners who sat national examinations at lower levels cannot be traced in subsequent assessment records.
The Ministry of Education has now teamed up with the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) to establish the whereabouts of the learners and determine why they did not appear in the registers for the next stages of their education.
Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Ogamba said the government was concerned about the emerging figures and had directed officials to undertake a comprehensive investigation rather than assume that all the affected learners had dropped out of school.
Data from the Kenya National Examinations Council (KNEC) shows that 1,233,852 candidates sat the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) examination in 2022, but only 1,048,355 registered for the 2026 Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE).
This leaves a gap of 185,497 learners between the two examination cohorts.
A similar trend has emerged under the Competency-Based Education (CBE) system, where 1,281,210 learners sat the Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA) in 2023, but only 1,206,028 were registered for the Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA) this year.
The difference represents another 75,182 learners, bringing the combined number of unaccounted-for learners to 260,679, or approximately 261,000.
Investigation into learner progression
However, the figures do not necessarily mean all the learners have abandoned education.
Ogamba said some could have transferred to alternative education pathways, including technical and vocational training institutions, while others may have experienced circumstances that delayed their progression.
The investigation is expected to provide a clearer picture of the country's education transition patterns and establish whether learners are being lost along the education journey.
Despite the concerns, the 2026 KCSE examination has recorded an increase in candidature, with 1,048,355 candidates registered compared with approximately 996,000 last year, representing a rise of about five per cent.
The Education CS also reported an increase in KPSEA registration, which has risen to approximately 1.4 million candidates.
The findings are likely to renew debate over school retention, access to education and the government's commitment to ensuring every child progresses through the education system.
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