The low enrollment figures for the pioneer Grade 10 cohort in senior schools under Kenya’s Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) continue to raise serious red flags for the government and the education sector as a whole. As of mid-January 2026, with schools having reopened on January 12, reports indicate that a substantial portion – potentially around 800,000 out of the expected 1.13 million learners – have yet to report to their assigned institutions.
This translates to roughly 30% or less having enrolled in the initial days, a scenario that stands in stark contrast to historical transition rates, even during periods when basic education was not fully subsidized. In previous systems, families consistently prioritized secondary entry despite economic pressures, viewing it as a non-negotiable investment in the future. The current shortfall signals deeper, multifaceted challenges that threaten the very foundation of the CBC reform.
The transition process, guided by the Kenya Junior Secondary Education Assessment (KJSEA) results released in December 2025, was designed to be seamless. Placements factored in a composite score, 60% from KJSEA, 20% from school-based assessments in Grades 7 and 8, and 20% from the Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA) to align learners with one of three specialized pathways: STEM, Social Sciences, or Arts & Sports. Over 9,500 public senior schools were designated, boasting a collective capacity well above 2.2 million, providing ample space following the exit of nearly 930,000 KCSE candidates.
The Ministry of Education assured 100% transition, emphasizing equity, talent nurturing, and preparation for either university or the job market after Grade 12.
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Yet, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Parents and guardians, in interviews across various counties, overwhelmingly attribute the delays to financial hardships. Even with government capitation set at Sh22,244 per learner annually for senior schools – and no official increase in fees confirmed – many households face daunting out-of-pocket costs.
Boarding schools in urban areas can charge up to Sh53,554 per year, while other boarding facilities hover around Sh40,535, plus additional expenses for uniforms, books, transport and levies. In rural and low-income settings, these amounts prove prohibitive amid rising living costs and economic strain. Delays in bursary disbursements and scholarships have left many needy families unable to mobilize funds quickly, exacerbating the issue. Distant placements further inflate transport burdens, while lingering placement grievances – despite review windows extending into early January have bred uncertainty and reluctance.
The Ministry has responded by extending the Grade 10 reporting deadline to January 21, 2026, aiming to accommodate latecomers and prevent any learner from being excluded. This measure provides valuable breathing room for families to arrange finances or resolve placement concerns. However, extending the reporting date alone may not deliver the desired results. Without accompanying, robust interventions, the extension risks becoming a mere postponement of the problem rather than a solution, allowing the enrollment gap to widen as instructional time is lost and disengagement sets in. The pioneer cohort’s struggles could establish a damaging precedent, eroding public confidence in the CBC’s promise of inclusive, competency-driven education.
To avert this, the government must prioritize swift, targeted actions. Accelerating the release of bursaries, scholarships, and capitation funds directly to schools and vulnerable households would alleviate immediate financial barriers. Enhanced coordination with county governments, local administrators, and community leaders could facilitate outreach to trace and support absent learners. Addressing textbook distribution delays and teacher readiness gaps would reassure parents that schools are equipped for quality learning from the outset. Transparent communication about fee structures, placement finality and support mechanisms is essential to rebuild trust in the system.
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This moment is more than an administrative hiccup; it is a test of the CBC’s commitment to equity and opportunity. The 100% transition target, repeatedly pledged by the Ministry, hangs in the balance with this inaugural group. Every un-enrolled learner represents a deferred dream, a potential dropout and a missed chance to harness talents for national development. Unless effective interventions are carried out – beyond deadline extensions – the risk of missing the 100% transition goal becomes very real, undermining years of curriculum reform and investment in Kenya’s youth.
Stakeholders must act decisively now to ensure that financial and logistical hurdles do not sabotage the futures of hundreds of thousands of young Kenyans. The success of senior school specialization depends on getting every eligible learner through the gates promptly, supported and ready to thrive. Only through comprehensive, urgent measures can the government honor its vision and secure a strong start for this transformative phase of education.
By Ashford Kimani
Ashford teaches English and Literature in Gatundu North Sub-county and serves as Dean of Studies.
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